The recent assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir has raised a question mark over the reliability of exit poll forecasts again. Some are alleging that electronic voting machines (EVMs) aren’t foolproof, or that the Election Commission of India (ECI) and the mainstream media favour the ruling dispensation. On some such questions about the country’s electoral politics, urban Indians are largely split on party lines, the latest round of the YouGov-Mint-CPR Millennial Survey found.
Held in July 2024, weeks after the results of the Lok Sabha elections, the survey found that those leaning towards the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had a more positive mindset on these big questions, while Congress supporters showed scepticism.
This was the 12th round of our biannual survey, with 10,314 respondents across more than 200 towns and cities. The surveys are conducted by Mint in association with survey partner YouGov India and Delhi-based think tank Centre for Policy Research. Conducted since 2018, the surveys throw light on the beliefs, choices and anxieties of India’s young urban population.
In the latest round, 45% of the respondents were post-millennials (born after 1996) and 39% were millennials (born between 1981 and 1996). Around 46% said the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was their most favoured party, while 15% said the same for the Congress.
Burning questions
Did the poll panel do well in conducting the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in a free and fair manner? Nearly three in five (58%) respondents gave a positive assessment, while 42% felt it fell short. BJP supporters were the most satisfied, with 67% approving of the ECI’s conduct, compared to only 46% of Congress supporters. Among those who favour other parties or do not identify with any party, 53% showed satisfaction.
A larger proportion (61%) supported the continued use of EVMs, dismissing the allegations of tampering as unfounded. The rest were in favour of the paper ballot system as they felt it would be more foolproof. The opinion on EVMs again varied by political affiliation—BJP supporters (71%) were the most positive, against only 46% of Congress supporters. Among others, a majority favoured the use of EVMs over the paper ballot.
Did the media give favourable coverage to the BJP during the election campaign, or did they give fair coverage to all political parties? The respondents were again split: 54% believed that the media had favoured the BJP, while 46% felt media coverage was fair to all. Interestingly, 47% of BJP supporters agreed that the media favoured their party, with 53% stating it gave fair coverage. On the contrary, 64% of Congress supporters felt the media was biased; supporters of other parties (60%) and non-identifiers (57%), too, shared the perception.
Are exit polls reliable?
Public opinion was divided on the integrity of exit poll projections, with 46% believing that the forecasts for the 2024 elections were fraudulent and reeked of a scam, as alleged by the Congress soon after the results. The rest said exit polls can go wrong but allegations of fraud were baseless. Among BJP supporters, three-fifths (60%) trusted the exit polls and rejected fraud claims. But 56% of Congress supporters believed the exit polls were fraudulent. The survey indicates that trust in exit polls is closely tied to party loyalty, with BJP supporters showing more trust in their legitimacy.
Opinions on the frequency of elections and simultaneous state and national elections are mixed. Overall, one in three respondents (33%) believed that holding multiple election cycles is a waste of money and time, while another one-third (34%) said the status quo of staggered elections strengthens democracy. Meanwhile, 19% expressed concerns that such a move could create problems, and the remaining (14%) were unfamiliar with the proposal. The Cabinet recently gave its approval to the idea based on recommendations of a panel led by former President Ram Nath Kovind.
Older respondents were more likely to view multiple elections as wasteful, while post-millennials were more inclined to believe that varying election cycles strengthen democracy. Political affiliation also plays a role: 41% of BJP supporters had the view that multiple election cycles waste resources, compared to only 24% of Congress supporters, who were more likely to favour staggered elections (39%).
The survey suggests that the perception of electoral issues is increasingly shaped by party affiliations. BJP supporters generally exhibit greater trust in the ECI, EVMs, and exit polls, and are more likely to see media coverage as fair. In contrast, supporters of the Congress and smaller parties tend to be apprehensive and perceive biases. The opinion is divided on the question of simultaneous elections and there exists a general agreement on what is expected from coalition arrangements.
(The authors are associated with the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi)
(This is the second part of a series about the findings of the 12th round of the survey. The first part looked at the impact of the 2024 elections on political preferences. Note that these surveys are skewed towards urban, well-to-do netizens, with 90% of respondents falling under the NCCS-A socio-economic category of consumers. Full methodology note here.)
In charts: How BJP delivers a hat-trick despite tough battle with Congress
#charts #Making #sense #urban #Indias #political #faultlines
