‘Perplexing’ times is perhaps a worse thing to wish for. But that’s perhaps where value investors find themselves today.
Let’s step back a bit and see the big picture.
- Indian stock markets are at all-time highs, tracking to some extent global markets, which have also rallied sharply this year.
- Indian stock markets, as represented by a flagship index, are not very expensive by historical standards. The current price to earnings (P/E) multiple of the Nifty 50 is 23.6x, compared to its 10-year median of 23.5x as per Screener.in. That’s hardly euphoric.
- The amount of domestic money pouring into the Indian stock markets is unprecedented. A lot of this is via mutual funds, and there too, the focus has been on small and mid caps, and thematic funds (until recently, but more on this later).
- Like in 2023, foreign investors have been net sellers of Indian stocks so far this calendar year. The net sales are much larger this year.
- Owing to various factors, there’s unanimity on the positive direction of India’s economy in the years to come. This is perhaps now the dominant theme in the market.
This makes for a situation in which stock markets are at a high, but not terribly expensive, and liquidity is high, but perhaps not as high as it could be. Hmmm.
What’s perplexing, however, is all this money chasing Indian stocks has not driven the benchmark NSE 50 to crazy valuations. Instead, mid cap and small cap stocks have attracted a large chunk of this money. Not surprisingly, BSE Midcap Index is trading at a P/E multiple of 33.6x as compared to its 10-year median of 28.3x. The corresponding P/E multiples for the BSE Smallcap Index are 35.9x and 42.6x.
Going purely by this one metric, it seems mid and small caps are where the excesses lie. But this may not remain the case for long.
Also read: Warren Buffett’s cash pile soars. What it could mean for you.
Data on recent mutual fund flows shows some of this money may be starting to shift to large caps. This trend could perhaps grow stronger when foreign institutional investors (FIIs) return. But who knows when that will happen.
The net result of all this is that value investors like us, who try to stay ahead of the liquidity to increase our chances of making big returns, are being squeezed out.
Let me explain.
One way to find attractively priced stocks is to run screens on broad parameters. Now, if you are like me and have not diluted your buy criteria, the number of stocks thrown up by such filters is dwindling quickly.
What’s worse is that the quality of companies that are being thrown up ranges from kind of good, to falsely exciting, and all the way to totally scam-ridden.
So we have fewer stocks to choose from and most of them are ticking time bombs, meaning they’re cheap for a reason.
What’s worse is that with the money hose potentially turning towards large caps, this list could shrink even further.
If you think that’s perplexing, there’s more.
As valuations continue to be stretched in mid and small caps, and could now possibly start rising for large caps, what are we to do as value investors?
Forget investing more – an even more critical question is whether you should look to book profits.
It’s a horribly perplexing situation.
Also read: Why you shouldn’t copy Vijay Kedia’s stock picks blindly
Come to think of it, the momentum guys have it easy. They just keep latching onto what’s moving up, in effect causing it to move up more, and so on and so forth. How easy it is. They keep riding this tide till kingdom come, lapping up untold riches. It’s amazing.
If you believed what I just said about momentum, well, read it again, and this time notice the sarcastic tone!
Warren Buffett, the north star for us value investors, has of course done what would have been expected of him. He has not made any big bets recently, other than risk-free US Treasury bonds. In fact, Buffett has sold a ton of shares, increasing his cash pile to just under $300 billion. He is walking the value talk in real time.
Now, the question to ask is this: what will you, dear value investor, do?
Unfortunately, there’s no easy answer. I for one am still going through the stocks that the screeners are throwing up and studying them to see if there is a genuine buying opportunity out there. So far, not surprisingly, nothing new has come up.
Also read: Ignoring market noise is difficult but not impossible. Here’s how to do it.
And what about booking profits? I guess this becomes relevant when one sees a near-term need for funds, or a tax event, or any such significant trigger (like in the case of Buffett, perhaps) that necessitates action. Other than that, it may be a good idea to ride out a possible roller-coaster dive in near term. That’s probably the path for me, at least.
This brings me to the all-important point about planning your asset allocation. This is a must, not just to deal with times like this, but to ensure that you meet your life goals over time without having to do anything crazy — like chasing stocks that are rising in the hope they will rise even more!
Rahul Goel is a finance and publishing professional with more than 25 years of experience in the industry. You can tweet him @rahulgoel477.
You should always consult your personal investment advisor or wealth manager before making any decisions.
#Dear #investor #perplexing #times
