Assad has long been a cornerstone of India’s West Asia strategy. In a statement issued on 9 December, the Ministry of External Affairs emphasized the importance of preserving Syria’s sovereignty and advocated for a Syrian-led political process.
However, key questions remain: What does Assad’s fall mean for India? Will it compel a reconfiguration of India’s geopolitical strategy in West Asia? Could this transition have implications for India’s internal security? And, most importantly, what should India’s next steps be?
A time-tested strategic alliance
India’s relationship with Syria has weathered decades of geopolitical upheaval, including the civil war that erupted in 2011.
Anchored in principles of non-interference, territorial integrity, and mutual respect for sovereignty, the partnership remained steadfast even as Assad faced global condemnation for brutal crackdowns and human rights abuses. New Delhi consistently backed a Syrian-led political process in line with UN Security Council Resolution 2254, reaffirming its commitment to Syria’s sovereignty, independence, and unity.
India has also provided substantial economic support to Syria. In 2021, it offered $280 million to build power and steel plants, established a Next Generation Centre for Information Technology in Damascus, and awarded scholarships to 1,500 Syrian students. These investments were not altruistic; they aligned with India’s broader energy and security interests in West Asia.
Assad, in turn, proved to be a reliable ally for India on critical issues, particularly Kashmir. He supported India’s stance on the abrogation of Article 370, dismissing criticism from the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and several Arab nations.
Syria also served as a counterbalance to Pakistan and China in international forums. New Delhi reciprocated by backing Damascus on contentious issues like the Golan Heights and finding common ground on Gaza, even as India’s ties with Israel deepened.
Implications of Assad’s ouster
The power shift in Syria introduces a volatile and unpredictable chapter.
HTS, which led the overthrow of Assad, has a complicated history. Originally an al-Qaeda affiliate known as the Nusra Front, it severed ties with the jihadist network in 2016. While the fall of Assad is celebrated by many, it also raises the spectre of extremist resurgence, a concern that could have far-reaching implications for India.
The Assad regime, backed by Russia and Iran, acted as a bulwark against radical forces like ISIS. With Syria now in flux, the risk of extremist groups regaining a foothold looms large. This poses a direct threat to India’s internal security.
Read this | Mint Primer | Iranian missile strikes: How to bell the cat now?
The regional balance of power is also shifting. Iran and Russia, once key players in Syria, have been sidelined, while Turkey has gained influence by supporting rebel factions. The Arab world and global powers, particularly the US, are watching closely. President Joe Biden has emphasized the need for a political process, but president-elect Donald Trump has maintained that Syria’s future is for Syrians to decide.
For India, this upheaval necessitates a recalibration of its West Asia strategy. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, speaking at the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, acknowledged the complexity of the region, noting challenges stretching “from Gaza to Lebanon to Syria.”
More broadly, the fall of Assad threatens to undermine strategic stability in West Asia, a region critical to India’s energy security and geopolitical ambitions.
What comes next?
As the dust settles in Syria, India must navigate the shifting geopolitical terrain with caution and foresight.
Russia and Iran have long been key allies for India, as has Israel in more recent years. With Iran’s influence in Syria waning and Turkey stepping in to support rebel factions, India faces a complex challenge in navigating the evolving dynamics across Gaza, Lebanon, and now Syria.
The key question is clear: how will India recalibrate its geopolitical, security, and energy strategies in this volatile region?
While strategic pragmatism guides India’s approach, it is undeniable that the Assad regime was both autocratic and brutal. The transition in Syria offers a delayed moment of hope and reckoning for its people, though the risk of sliding into violent extremism remains significant. For India, caution and concern are warranted, but it must avoid hesitation in opening communication channels with the transitional apparatus led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Also read | The killing of Yahya Sinwar: Not the endgame?
India has rightly emphasized the importance of a Syrian-led political process, but as a rising power, it is imperative to move beyond regime-centric policies. While strategic interest is significant it should not mean unwavering support to regimes like Assad’s, underscoring the need for a more balanced and adaptable approach to its West Asia strategy.
Shweta Singh is associate professor, department of international relations, South Asian University.
#fall #Assad #means #Indias #strategy #West #Asia
